The U.S. Department of State recently published the Visa Bulletin for January 2025 (see here), indicating that the Final Action Dates and Dates for Filing will remain unchanged for the Unreserved EB-5 category, while the Reserved EB-5 categories will continue to be “current” next month.
However, all EB-5 stakeholders should note the following important update included in the January Visa Bulletin:
E. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE EMPLOYMENT FIFTH PREFERENCE (EB-5) SET ASIDE CATEGORIES
The Department of State and USCIS note increased I-526E petition approvals, and both agencies see increasing numbers of individuals processing their applications to completion in the EB-5 set aside categories. It may become necessary to establish Dates for Filing and Final Action Dates during the fiscal year to ensure that issuances in these categories do not exceed annual limits. This situation will be continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly.
This is the first time the State Department has issued a “warning” about potential cut-off dates for the Reserved EB-5 categories. While the timing and specifics of any potential Reserved EB-5 cut-off dates remain unclear, IIUSA will continue to monitor the situation closely and keep its members informed of any new developments.
Data Analysis: Reserved Visa Demand Calculation
I-526/E Case Adjudications vs. Case Filings
According to the State Department, at least 6,839 EB-5 visas will be available in the Reserved categories for FY2025. During his presentation at the 2024 IIUSA EB-5 Industry Forum, Dr. Michael Hanley (Data Scientist at the DOS) shared that no cut-off dates are expected for the set-aside EB-5 categories during the first half of FY2025. He also discussed factors influencing the need for cut-off dates, one of which is the rate of I-526E adjudications by USCIS (see page 7 of IIUSA’s report, Ten Key Takeaways on the Latest EB-5 Data and Visa Processing from the 2024 IIUSA EB-5 Industry Forum).
Based on USCIS data obtained by IIUSA via a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request, at least 718 I-526E petitions tied to Reserved EB-5 categories had been approved as of July 5, 2024. This includes 478 approvals for Rural Area petitions and 240 for High-Unemployment Area (HUA) petitions (see page 6 of IIUSA’s analysis, Latest Data on I-526E and I-526 Filings, Adjudications and Withdrawals).
Assuming an average of 2.5 visas per approval, it is estimated that, as of July 5, 2024:
- 1,195 visas are required for Rural Area applicants.
- 600 visas are needed for HUA applicants.
With at least 4,274 visas available for Rural Area petitions and more than 2,137 visas for HUA petitions in FY2025, a cut-off date is not anticipated for the Reserved categories during at least the first half of FY2025 based on current approval trends. The tables below summarized our analysis of case adjudications based on the data that IIUSA published:
However, IIUSA’s FOIA data also reveal that, as of July 5, 2024:
- Over 2,278 I-526/E petitions were filed under the Rural Area category.
- At least 3,432 I-526/E petitions were submitted under the HUA category .
Once approved, we estimated that these petitions on file would require (depending on approval rate and family size, see Figure 5 below):
- 2,900–5,400 visas from the Rural Area category.
- 4,380–8,158 visas from the HUA category.
Based on case filings, the Reserved visa supply in FY2025 and FY2026 may not be sufficient to meet the demand if all these these cases are approved by USCIS within a single fiscal year.
Potential Cut-Off Dates for the Reserved Categories
If USCIS continues to approve I-526E petitions at an increasing pace, with more than 5,710 I-526/E cases currently filed under the Reserved categories, cut-off dates may become necessary, particularly for the HUA category. The note in the January Visa Bulletin indicates that USCIS has recently approved more I-526E petitions, and EB-5 investors are accelerating their submission of required documents to secure visas in recent months.
However, it remains unclear that 1) how many additional I-526E cases have been approved since July 2024; and 2) how close year-to-date visa usage is to approach the annual limit for the Reserved categories. IIUSA will continue to engage with the State Department to track developments and keep members updated.
EB-5 FINAL ACTION DATES (CHART A)
The January Visa Bulletin revealed the following final action dates for EB-5 visa applicants:
-
Unreserved EB-5 Visa Categories:
- China: July 15, 2016 (same as the December Visa Bulletin)
- India: January 1, 2022 (same as the December Visa Bulletin)
- All Other Countries: “Current”
-
Reserved EB-5 Visa Categories:
- All Countries: “Current”
(Chart A on the January 2025 Visa Bulletin)
EB-5 DATES FOR FILING (CHART B)
In all Reserved EB-5 categories, there are no cutoff dates for applicants across the board in the upcoming month.
In the Unreserved EB-5 category, the dates for filing will remain “current” for all applicants in January 2025, except for those born in China or India. For Chinese applicants, the date for filing will retrogress to October 1, 2016, while for Indian applicants, the date for filing will remain April 1, 2022.
USCIS has announced that it will accept Chart B for January, meaning eligible applicants will be able to file their adjustment of status applications next month based on the dates for filing. See more details here.
(Chart B on the January 2025 Visa Bulletin)
Have you checked out IIUSA’s EB-5 Visa Data Dashboard? This powerful tool provides comprehensive data insights on EB-5 visa usage, including year-to-date issuances for fiscal year 2023, historical visa number availability versus usage, country-specific statistics on EB-5 green card issuances, and much more.
