On Tuesday, April 1, the April 2025 Visa Bulletin became effective (see here). Unreserved EB-5 final action dates for China and India have officially retrogressed respectively by 905 and 792 days from March, marking the most significant retrogression for Unreserved visas the EB-5 community has ever experienced. While Unreserved EB-5 applicants from the rest of the world (ROW) remain exempt from any cut-off dates, the State Department included a note in the April Visa Bulletin stating that a final action date “may also become necessary” for ROW applicants “if demand and number use continue to increase.” See below for the full text of the notes included in the most recent Visa Bulletin regarding Unreserved EB-5:
E. RETROGRESSION OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIFTH PREFERENCE (EB-5) UNRESERVED FINAL ACTION DATES FOR CHINA AND INDIA
Increased demand and number use by China and India in the EB-5 unreserved visa categories, combined with increased Rest of World demand and number use, made it necessary to retrogress the final action dates to hold number use within the maximum allowed under the FY-2025 annual limits. Please note that it may also become necessary to establish a final action date for Rest of World countries if demand and number use continues to increase. This situation will be continually monitored, and any necessary adjustments will be made accordingly.
In contrast, all Reserved EB-5 categories remain “Current” across the board in April, and there are no further warnings about the possibility of establishing a cut-off date for Reserved EB-5 in the upcoming month(s).
DATA ANALYSIS: UNDERSTANDING THE UNRESERVED EB-5 RETROGRESSION
The October 2024 Visa Bulletin revealed a historic advancement for Unreserved EB-5 applicants from China and India, with their final action dates moving forward by 213 days and 396 days, respectively, from the previous month. This advancement allowed thousands of Chinese EB-5 applicants with a priority date in the first half of 2016 and hundreds of Indian applicants with a priority date in 2021 to proceed to their visa interviews and secure their visa numbers in FY2025.
However, based on the NVC EB-5 waitlist data shared by the State Department and the pending I-485 application statistics published by USCIS, we found that, with the October advancement in Unreserved EB-5 dates, the number of EB-5 applicants eligible for an Unreserved visa became twice the number of Unreserved EB-5 visas available in FY2025, raising the risk of retrogression. In fact, our analysis estimated that approximately 22,940 pre-RIA EB-5 applicants were eligible for an Unreserved visa as of October 1, 2024, while only 11,720 visas are available this fiscal year under the Unreserved category. Specifically, we found that 13,920 applicants from China were eligible for a visa at the start of FY2025, while fewer than 5,000 Unreserved visas could be available for China. Additionally, 2,370 Indian pre-RIA EB-5 applicants were eligible to secure their Unreserved visa on October 1, 2024, but only 832 visas are available in FY2025 due to the per-country cap. See Table 1 below for a summary.
Furthermore, Consulate Offices around the world have been operating with high efficiency to issue Unreserved EB-5 visas during the first four months of FY2025. Data from the State Department showed that 5,387 Unreserved visas were issued between October 1, 2024, and January 31, 2025, representing 46% of total visa availability this fiscal year. Pre-RIA applicants from China have been able to utilize the “otherwise unused” Unreserved numbers from previous years. However, the visa issuance data indicates that an increasing number of Unreserved visas are being issued to ROW applicants in FY2025, leaving fewer “otherwise unused” visas available for Chinese applicants (see Table 1 above).
Moreover, the above analysis does not include visa demand from the 3,744 pending pre-RIA I-526 petitions (as of October 1, 2024). If USCIS approves a larger number of ROW pre-RIA I-526 cases and those applicants act quickly to secure their visa numbers in FY2025, even fewer “otherwise unused” Unreserved visas would be available for Chinese applicants. As a result, the remaining Unreserved visa numbers may not be sufficient to meet the demand from ROW applicants, making a potential cut-off “necessary.”
All the factors mentioned above could be the reasons behind the drastic retrogression in April for China and India Unreserved EB-5 applicants, as well as the possibility of a cut-off date for ROW applicants this year.
EB-5 FINAL ACTION DATES (CHART A)
The April Visa Bulletin revealed the following final action dates for EB-5 visa applicants:
-
Unreserved EB-5 Visa Categories:
- China: January 22, 2014 (retrogress by 905 days from the March Visa Bulletin)
- India: November 1, 2019 (retrogress by 792 days from the March Visa Bulletin)
- All Other Countries: “Current”
-
Reserved EB-5 Visa Categories:
- All Countries: “Current”
(Chart A on the April 2025 Visa Bulletin)
EB-5 DATES FOR FILING (CHART B)
All Reserved EB-5 categories remain “current” across the board, confirming that there are no cutoff dates for applicants in these categories in the upcoming month.
For the Unreserved EB-5 category, the Dates for Filing will remain “current” for all applicants in March, except for those born in China or India:
- For Chinese applicants, the Date for Filing will retrogress to October 1, 2016 (unchanged from the March Visa Bulletin);.
- For Indian applicants, the Date for Filing will remain April 1, 2022 (unchanged from the March Visa Bulletin).
(Chart B on the April 2025 Visa Bulletin)
USCIS AOS Filing Charts for April 2025
According to USCIS, in April, the agency will continue to accept only Chart A (Final Action Dates) for employment-based adjustment of status (AOS) applications, meaning the window to use Chart B (Dates for Filing) will remain closed in the upcoming month. See below for USCIS’ announcement on its website:
Current Month’s Adjustment of Status Filing Charts
For Family-Sponsored Filings:
For all family-sponsored preference categories, you must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for April 2025.
For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
For all employment-based preference categories, you must use the Final Action Dates chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for April 2025.
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